This paper studies the impact of political risk on exchange rates. We focus on the Brexit Referendum as it provides a natural experiment where both exchange rate expectations and a time-varying political risk factor can be measured directly. We build a simple portfolio model which predicts that...

The paper presents a method of computing the risk neutral probability distribution of future exchange rates from the prices of currency options. The method is applied to estimate the risk neutral ex ante probability of a realignment of the pound sterling against the mark in 1992. The computation...

This paper brings together the literature on determination of home bias in equity holdings and the portfolio balance model of exchange rates to consider whether the dollar might be affected by a change in transactions costs that alters international portfolio allocations. The empirical findings...

We propose in this paper a likelihood-based framework forcointegration analysis in panels of a fixed number of vector errorcorrection models. Maximum likelihood estimators of thecointegrating vectors are constructed using iterated GeneralizedMethod of Moments estimators. Using these estimators...

We analyze the impact of the ECB monetary policies on global aggregate and sectoral commodity prices using monthly data from January 2001 till August 2019. We employ a SVAR model and assess separately period of conventional monetary policy before global financial crisis (GFC) and unconventional...

This paper investigates the capital market relations between Euroland and the USA from 1990 until 2006. Formally based on the uncovered interest rate parity (UIP), backward recursive estimations establish a long-run equilibrium between European and US government bond yields. Since the mid-1990s...

Albanian economy is strongly dependent on its trade with Europe and in particular with the Euro area. The paper examines the international transmission mechanisms between Albania and the Euro area, linking its inflation and interest rates with the Euro area ones. The attention is focused on the...