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Tracking global economic uncertainty : implications for the euro area

Bobasu, Alina; Geis, André; Quaglietti, Lucia; Ricci, … - 2021

This paper sheds light on the impact of global macroeconomic uncertainty on the euro area economy. We build on the methodology proposed by Jurado et al. (2015) and estimate global as well as country-specific measures of economic uncertainty for fifteen key euro area trade partners and the euro...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012503567

Asymmetric semi-volatility spillover effects in EMU stock markets

Caloia, Francesco Giuseppe; Cipollini, Andrea; … - In: International review of financial analysis 57 (2018), pp. 221-230

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012006352

Bayesian nonparametric methods for macroeconomic forecasting

Marcellino, Massimiliano; Pfarrhofer, Michael - 2024

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014520837

Euro area real-time density forecasting with financial or labor market frictions

McAdam, Peter; Warne, Anders - 2018

We compare real-time density forecasts for the euro area using three DSGE models. The benchmark is the Smets-Wouters model and its forecasts of real GDP growth and inflation are compared with those from two extensions. The first adds financial frictions and expands the observables to include a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011813503

Modelling volatilities and conditional correlations in futures markets with a multivariate t distribution

Pesaran, Bahram (contributor); … - 2007

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003491106

Modelling volatilities and conditional correlations in futures markets with a multivariate t distribution

Pesaran, Bahram (contributor); … - 2007

than by GARCH type volatility estimates. The t-DCC estimation procedure is applied to a portfolio of daily returns on …-DCC specification. The t-DCC model also passes a number of VaR diagnostic tests over an evaluation sample. The estimation results … suggest a general trend towards a lower level of return volatility, accompanied by a rising trend in conditional cross …