Pesci, Nicolas; Aguilar, Jean-Philippe; James, Victor; … - In: Journal of risk and financial management : JRFM 15 (2022) 10, pp. 1-20
Considering market-based inflation expectations, we show that investors’ forecasts are non-linear. We capture this non-linear behavior with a Markov-switching model that allows us to identify a regime of high uncertainty, and a regime of low uncertainty and low concern about inflation. Using a...