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This paper addresses the issue of measuring the NAIRU for the euro area and assessing the robustness and precision of the obtained estimates. The empirical framework adopted is based on systems combining an Okun-type relationship between cyclical unemployment and the output gap with a Phillips...
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, to determine whether there is any type of bias on the selection process followed by the Commission when deciding which …
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We propose a first order bias correction term for the Gini index to reduce the bias due to grouping. The first order … reveals an intuitive formula for the remaining second order bias which is useful in empirical analyses. We analyze the … it reduces a considerable share of the bias due to grouping. …
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We test for state-dependent bias in the European Central Bank's inflation projections. We show that the ECB tends to … underpredict when the observed inflation rate at the time of forecasting is higher than an estimated threshold of 1.8%. The bias is … most pronounced at intermediate forecasting horizons. This suggests that inflation is projected to revert towards the …
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