determinant of the monetary transmission mechanism, namely the degree of persistence characterising the inflation process. The … types of staggered contracts specifications which induce quite different degrees of inflation persistence. The paper shows … that inflation persistence is high when uncertainty about the prevailing degree of inflation persistence is pervasive …

We test for bias and efficiency of the ECB inflation forecasts using a confidential dataset of ECB macroeconomic … (underpredict) inflation at intermediate forecast horizons when inflation is below (above) target. The magnitude of the bias is … quarterly projections. We investigate whether the properties of the forecasts depend on the level of inflation, by …

We test for bias and efficiency of the ECB inflation forecasts using a confidential dataset of ECB macroeconomic … (underpredict) inflation at intermediate forecast horizons when inflation is below (above) target. The magnitude of the bias is … quarterly projections. We investigate whether the properties of the forecasts depend on the level of inflation, by …

We test for state-dependent bias in the European Central Bank's inflation projections. We show that the ECB tends to … underpredict when the observed inflation rate at the time of forecasting is higher than an estimated threshold of 1.8%. The bias is … most pronounced at intermediate forecasting horizons. This suggests that inflation is projected to revert towards the …

We test for bias and efficiency of the ECB inflation forecasts using a confidential dataset of ECB macroeconomic … (underpredict) inflation at intermediate forecast horizons when inflation is below (above) target. The magnitude of the bias is … quarterly projections. We investigate whether the properties of the forecasts depend on the level of inflation, by …

Current HICP measurement practices produce an upward bias of about one-ninth of a percentage point in German inflation … consider this source of mismeasurement when assessing the precision of the HICP as a measure of "true" inflation. …