affected temporarily. Inflation forecasts made by Eurosystem/ECB staff perform similarly or slightly better than those from our …

einer naiven Random Walk Prognose. Auch die Verwendung des Terminkurses als Prognose für die zukünftige … dar, von der sie sich bei der Erstellung der Prognose nicht lösen können. Zum anderen erfolgt die Anpassung der Prognose …

evidence that macro and technical predictors can (statistically) improve forecast accuracy and (economically) generate gains to … that simple forecast combinations consistently yield substantial benefits both in forecast accuracy and economic gain. For … other G7 countries. We provide initial evidence on the link between country characteristics and out-of-sample forecast …

risk premium are systematically rising along the line of inflation risk. We rationalize these findings in a consumption …-based asset pricing model, with local consumption uncertainty and global inflation uncertainty characterized, respectively, by the …

-established predictors considering in- and out-of-sample tests for forecast horizons between one and twelve months. In an international … forecast cash flow news in- and outside the U.S …