In this paper, we study the fit and the predictive performance of the Phillips curve for euro area inflation with … regard to different inflation series, time periods and predictor variables, notably different global factors. We compare the … prices, global consumer inflation, global economic slack and foreign demand. We find that traditional global indicators such …

Despite closing output gaps and tightening labor markets, inflation has remained low inthe euro area. Based on an … augmented Phillips Curve framework, we find that thisphenomenon-sometimes attributed to low global inflation-has been primarily … causedby a remarkable persistence of inflation, keeping it low despite the reduction in slack. Thisfeature is shown to be …

breaks in the performance of most simple Phillips curves. Euro area inflation was particularly hard to forecast in the run … practitioners, we find that: (i) the key type of time variation to consider is an inflation trend; (ii) a simple filter-based output …

This paper presents the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) -based framework for analysing euro area inflation outlook …. Our NKPC specification, that relies on market- and survey-based inflation expectations, explains well euro area inflation … long-horizons. Overall, the NKPC is a useful tool for monitoring euro area inflation outlook. Thanks to its fast and light …

breaks in the performance of most simple Phillips curves. Euro area inflation was particularly hard to forecast in the run … practitioners, we find that: (i) the key type of time variation to consider is an inflation trend; (ii) a simple filter-based output …

This paper develops Area-wide Leading Inflation CyclE (ALICE) indicators for euro area headline and core inflation with … an aim to provide early signals about turning points in the respective inflation cycle. The series included in the two … turning points in the inflation cycle ex post and perform well in a simulated real-time exercise over the period from 2010 to …

We develop a bottom-up model of inflation in the euro area based on a set of augmented Phillips curves for seven … subcomponents of core inflation and auxiliary regressions for non-core items. We use the model’s disaggregated structure to explore … improve on the ability to forecast inflation. In the baseline, the projection for core inflation is centered above 3 percent …

This paper analyzes the relationship between unemployment and wage inflation for 10 of the euro area countries. The … combination of low wage inflation and high unemployment in Europe is usually attributed to a rise in the natural rate of … unemployment that may account for a changing pattern in the unemployment inflation trade-off. Moreover, it analyzes whether the …

This paper analyzes the relationship between unemployment and wage inflation for 10 of the euro area countries. The … combination of low wage inflation and high unemployment in Europe is usually attributed to a rise in the natural rate of … unemployment that may account for a changing pattern in the unemployment inflation trade-off. Moreover, it analyzes whether the …

current inflation rates and adaptive expectations concerning the inflation climate in which the economy operates. The model … correction terms, and indirectly of income distribution, in the dynamics of wage and price inflation in the U.S. and the euro … Autoren auf der Basis von hochaggregierten Zeitreihen für die USA und den Euroraum strukturelle Parameterschätzwerte. Diese …