breaks in the performance of most simple Phillips curves. Euro area inflation was particularly hard to forecast in the run … in a forecaster's toolkit. We base these conclusions on an extensive forecast evaluation over 1994 - 2018, an … practitioners, we find that: (i) the key type of time variation to consider is an inflation trend; (ii) a simple filter-based output …

indicators help improve upon the simple Autoregressive (AR) model for forecasting HICP core inflation as well total inflation, if …In order to provide medium run forecasts of headline and core HICP inflation for the euro area, we assess the … in inflation in a timely manner. But, from that point of view, the construction of a ''synthetic core'' indicator helps …

money in forecasting euro-area inflation. We compare the predictive performance within and among various classes of … contains relevant information for inflation in some model classes. Money-based New Keynesian DSGE models and VARs incorporating … limits. The marginal contribution of money to forecasting accuracy is often small, money adds little to dynamic factor models …

This paper applies linear and neural network-based "thick" models for forecasting inflation based on Phillips …

money in forecasting euro-area inflation. We compare the predictive performance within and among various classes of … contains relevant information for inflation in some model classes. Money-based New Keynesian DSGE models and VARs incorporating …

the beginning of 2018. They also have performed well in forecasting the direction of inflation. In terms of the …This paper develops Area-wide Leading Inflation CyclE (ALICE) indicators for euro area headline and core inflation with … an aim to provide early signals about turning points in the respective inflation cycle. The series included in the two …