machine learning algorithms. We find that a neural network performs best out-of-sample. Thus, we use this algorithm to …

expectations and term premiums over horizons ranging from one month to five years. The model implies that term premiums vary over …

This paper compares within-sample and out-of-sample fit of a DSGE model with rational expectations to a model with … adaptive learning. The Galí, Smets and Wouters model is the chosen laboratory using quarterly real-time euro area data vintages …, covering 2001Q1-2019Q4. The adaptive learning model obtains better within-sample fit for all vintages used for estimation in …

differences in the adjustment path to the shocks to the economy when agent form expectations using our learning approach compared …Rational expectations has been the dominant way to model expectations, but the literature has quickly moved to a more … realistic assumption of boundedly rational learning where agents are assumed to use only a limited set of information to form …

path to the shocks to the economy when agent form expectations using our learning approach compared to expectations formed …Rational expectations has been the dominant way to model expectations, but the literature has quickly moved to a more … realistic assumption of boundedly rational learning where agents are assumed to use only a limited set of information to form …