We develop a bottom-up model of inflation in the euro area based on a set of augmented Phillips curves for seven subcomponents of core inflation and auxiliary regressions for non-core items. We use the model’s disaggregated structure to explore which factors drove the deterioration in...

What is the effect of carbon pricing on inflation? This paper shows empirically that the consequences of the European Union's Emission Trading System (ETS) and national carbon taxation on inflation have been limited in the euro area, so far. This result is supported by analysis based on a panel...

We develop a bottom-up model of inflation in the euro area based on a set of augmented Phillips curves for seven sub-components of core inflation, and auxiliary regressions for non-core items. The disaggregated structure of the model improves on the forecasting performance of a standard...

There is surprisingly little evidence on how terror attacks impact elections. With only a few exceptions, previous studies in this literature have focused on a particular country or attack, limiting their generalizability. Ours is the first comprehensive, multi-country examination of the effects...

There is surprisingly little evidence on how terror attacks impact elections. With only a few exceptions, previous studies in this literature have focused on a particular country or attack, limiting their generalizability. Ours is the first comprehensive, multi-country examination of the effects...

With only a few exceptions, previous studies on terror attacks and election outcomes have focused on a particular country or attack, limiting their generalizability. Using data on the outcomes of 393 legislative elections held in 39 European countries during the period 1970-2017, we find limited...