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We introduce a new measure of systemic risk, the change in the conditional joint probability of default, which assesses the effects of the interdependence in the financial system on the general default risk of sovereign debtors. We apply our measure to examine the fragility of the European...
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This paper sets the background for the Special Issue of the Journal of Empirical Finance on the European Sovereign Debt Crisis. It identifies the channel through which risks in the financial industry leaked into the public sector. It discusses the role of the bank rescues in igniting the...
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positive shocks, which creates moral hazard and is best explained by a “too-systemic-to-fail” effect. The contagion effects are … economically significant contagion channel for tail spread increases …
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On 3 December EY hosted a SUERF conference on banking reform with Sir Howard Davies, the Chairman of RBS, and Dame Colette Bowe, the Chairman of the Banking Standards Board, as the two keynote speakers. Professor David Miles (Imperial College) gave the SUERF 2015 Annual Lecture on Capital and...
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Since the onset of the eurozone sovereign debt crisis, credit risk spreads in Europe have diverged. Despite this … divergence, credit risk comoves strongly within certain country groups such as the eurozone periphery. We seek to answer what the … have been subject to contagion. We proceed in three steps. First, we apply dynamic conditional correlations from a …
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by euro zone member solvency issues. In this paper, we examine the contagion effects between sovereign and bank CDS … 2005 and April 2011. Our results show that before the sovereign debt crisis period there are few inter-regional contagion …
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