This paper tests the hypothesis on market efficiency for returns on the euro against fifteen currencies while assuming predictability of returns, dependent on the sign and magnitude of endogenous shocks. Considering the properties of exchange rate returns, the quantile autoregression approach...

The paper presents a method of computing the risk neutral probability distribution of future exchange rates from the prices of currency options. The method is applied to estimate the risk neutral ex ante probability of a realignment of the pound sterling against the mark in 1992. The computation...

This paper studies the dynamics of volatility transmission between Central European (CE) currencies and the EUR/USD foreign exchange using model-free estimates of daily exchange rate volatility based on intraday data. We formulate a flexible yet parsimonious parametric model in which the daily...

This article investigates the exchange rate volatility spillover and dynamic conditional correlation between the euro and the South African rand following the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis. It employs two multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (MGARCH) models,...

This paper studies the dynamics of volatility transmission between Central European currencies and euro/dollar foreign exchange using model-free estimates of daily exchange rate volatility based on intraday data. We formulate a flexible yet parsimonious parametric model in which the daily...