This paper proposes a methodology to anticipate market risk using qualitative and quantitative variables that capture communicative and financial activity within equity networks. During periods of crisis as market risk increases, companies tend to behave alike, and the number of news and common...

We build a non-stationary Hawkes model of sovereign credit risk for seven European countries, and estimate it on CDS data from the run-up to the Greek default. We model a country's credit risk as partly driven by a weighted combination of risks across countries. We find Spain and Portugal are...

In this paper we propose a novel approach in analysing the impact of changes in sovereign credit ratings on stock markets. We study the evolution of a segmented form of the stock market index for several crisis-hit countries, including both European and Asian markets. Such evolution is modelled...

We introduce a methodology for measuring default risk connectedness that is based on an out-of-sample variance decomposition of model forecast errors. The out-of-sample nature of the procedure leads to "realized" measures which, in practice, respond more quickly to crisis occurrences than those...

This paper analyzes market integration among long term government bonds in the Eurozone since the inception of the Euro in 1999. While it is commonly assumed that markets for EMU government bonds were closely integrated prior to the EMU debt crisis, we find that there is significant time...

We introduce a method for measuring default risk connectedness of euro zone sovereign states using credit default swap (CDS) and bond data. The connectedness measure is based on an out-of-sample variance decomposition of model forecast errors. Due to its predictive nature, it can respond more...

This paper uses sovereign CDS spread changes and their volatilities as a proxy for the informational efficiency of the sovereign markets and persistency of country risks. Specifically, we apply semi-parametric and parametric methods to the sovereign CDSs of 10 eurozone countries to test the...

We examine the asymmetric and nonlinear nature of the cross- and intra-market linkages of eleven EMU sovereign bond and CDS markets during 2006-2018. By adopting the excess correlation concept of Bekaert et al. (2005) and the local Gaussian correlation approach of Tjøstheim and Hufthammer...

We investigate the relationship between oil prices and stock markets of selected oil importers and oil exporters at the time of the COVID-19 pandemic. We provide evidence in favour of energy contagion, in term of significantly higher correlations between oil and stock markets returns during...

The Eurozone crisis is one the most important economic event in recent years. At its peak, the effects of the crisis have put at serious risk the outcome of the euro project, exposing the inherent weaknesses and vulnerabilities of the monetary union. As the degree of economic and financial...