The liberalization of the capital account of the balance of payments was one of the main reasons of the increasing amount of capital flows that came in into many emerging economies. In the last decades, the restrictions on these capital movements have been eliminated and the world has witnessed...

This paper analyses the incidence and severity of sudden stops in euro area countries before and after the introduction of the ECB's asset purchase programmes. We define sudden stops as abrupt declines in private net financial inflows, i.e. total flows adjusted for EU and IMF loans and changes...

I study the determinants of capital flows to Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico, assessing the relative importance of domestic and global factors. I estimate six VECM models, one for each Latin American country plus the Euro Area, Japan, and USA, and then embed them in a multi-country Global VAR. The...

We propose in this paper a likelihood-based framework forcointegration analysis in panels of a fixed number of vector errorcorrection models. Maximum likelihood estimators of thecointegrating vectors are constructed using iterated GeneralizedMethod of Moments estimators. Using these estimators...

This paper presents an empirical analysis of the medium-term determinants of the euro effective exchange rate. The empirical analysis builds on synthetic quarterly data from 1975 to 1998, and derives a Behavioural Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) and a Permanent Equilibrium Exchange Rate (PEER)....

Commercial and financial transactions between countries induce payment flows, which influence exchange rates. Exchange rates tend to follow the movements of the current account with a lag. The adjustment delay occurs as countries finance balance of payments deficits by borrowing from abroad....

Under the assumption that the balance of payments must satisfy the expected intertemporal balance, this paper seeks to establish a pre-condition for a crisis of the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM). Proposing that non-stationarity of the growth rate of assets is evidence of a violation of expected...

This paper considers the nature and the distribution of trade and FDI effects of a potential enlargement of the European Monetary Union (EMU) to the 10 countries that obtained EU membership in 2004. One-way and two-way error component gravity models are estimated using a data set of unbalanced...

We estimate a panel VAR model for the euro area to quantitatively asses the contribution of the TARGET2 system to the propagation of different types of structural economic shocks as well as to the historical evolution of aggregate economic activity in euro area member countries. Our results...