Usage of Monte Carlo simulation for pricing requires a well defined and accurate market implied distribution of risk factors. Overlay, on top of these simulated risk factors, one can also generate conditional prices based on the set of underlying risk factors at future time horizons. The ability...

This paper describes an algorithm to compute the distribution of conditional forecasts, i.e. projections of a set of variables of interest on future paths of some other variables, in dynamic systems. The algorithm is based on Kalman filtering methods and is computationally viable for large...

World economies, and especially European ones, have become strongly interconnected in the last decades and a joint modelling is required. We propose here the use of Copulas to build flexible multivariate distributions, since they allow for a rich dependence structure and more flexible marginal...

This paper sheds light on the impact of global macroeconomic uncertainty on the euro area economy. We build on the methodology proposed by Jurado et al. (2015) and estimate global as well as country-specific measures of economic uncertainty for fifteen key euro area trade partners and the euro...

This paper studies the impact of changes in the dynamic of correlation coefficients between asset returns on portfolio choices. Using weekly data from February 2002 to October 2011 on four different European asset classes, we obtain three main results. Firstly, we show that the 2007-2009 global...

Expanded separation portfolios ( Se ) and Treasurer's portfolios T( Se ) are a sect of themselves. They arise out of risk-free assets and risky portfolios like other mutual funds. But their distinctive features set them apart from the common lot. This paper puts forth, firstly, a down-to-earth...

Expanded separation portfolios ( Se ) and Treasurer’s portfolios T( Se ) are a sect of themselves. They arise out of risk-free assets and risky portfolios like other mutual funds. But their distinctive features set them apart from the common lot. This paper puts forth, firstly, a down-to-earth...

We develop a portfolio balance model to analyze the impact of euro area quantitative easing (QE) on asset yields. Our model features two countries each populated by two agents representing their respective banking and mututal fund sectors. Agents, which differ in their preferences for assets,...

We construct portfolios with an alternative selection criterion, the Omega function, which can be expressed as the ratio of two partial moments of a portfolio's return distribution. The main purpose of the paper is to investigate the empirical performance of the selected portfolios, especially...