modeling, we construct the area-wide indicators by utilizing weights that minimize the variance of the out-of-sample forecast … errors of the area-wide target variable. In an out-of-sample forecast experiment we find that our optimal pooling of … information approach outperforms alternative forecasting methods in terms of forecast accuracy. -- Forecasting ; aggregation …

forecast revisions as forecast measures but, additionally, focus on implied return revisions, based on target prices … forecast measures increases (decreases) within the quarter prior to the observation period. Further results show that mutual … fund managers primarily attribute high information value to consensus forecast revisions that contain positive information …

We suggest an alternative use of disaggregate information to forecast the aggregate variable of interest, that is to … findings and analyse why forecasting the aggregate using information on its disaggregate components improves forecast accuracy … of the aggregate forecast of euro area and US inflation in some situations, but not in others …

directional forecasts can provide a useful framework to assess the economic forecast value when loss functions (or success … directional forecast value is a readily available alternative to the commonly used squared error loss criterion. -- Directional … forecasts ; directional forecast value ; forecast evaluation ; economic forecast value ; mean squared forecast error ; mean …

function of a sample of exchange rate forecasters is asymmetric in the forecast error. Using forecasts of the euro …