We study the nature of systemic sovereign credit risk using CDS spreads for the U.S. Treasury, individual U.S. states, and major European countries. Using a multifactor affine framework that allows for both systemic and sovereign-specific credit shocks, we find that there is considerable...

This paper evaluates the financial spillovers between the US and emerging market economies (EMEs) using the methodology advocated by Diebold and Yilmaz (2009). Based on (i) cross-asset returns of sovereign bond, equity, and foreign exchange, and (ii) 27 individual long-term sovereign bond...

How will sovereign debt markets evolve in the 21st century? We survey how the literature has responded to the eurozone debt crisis, placing "lessons learned" in historical perspective. The crisis featured: (i) the return of debt problems to advanced economies; (ii) a bank-sovereign "doom-loop"...

Countries with large debts stocks are vulnerable to the vagaries of the markets. Confidence crises can arise out of nowhere, constricting access to the markets. Hence, the question arises as to whether these countries should put in place mechanisms that will help them better prepare for the...

This paper surveys recent economic and legal literature on sovereign debt in light of the COVID-19 shock. Most of the core theoretical contributions we review across the two disciplines hinge on immunity, and the sovereign borrower’s consequent inability to commit to repay foreign creditors,...

This paper applies both conventional panel data models and a dynamic simultaneous equations model to analyze the impact of fiscal austerity and growth prospects along with other macro fundamentals on the pricing of sovereign credit default swaps (CDS) for a panel of 36 countries including the...

We develop a multivariate credit risk model for the term structures of sovereign and bank credit default swaps. First, we separate the probability of joint defaults of large Eurozone sovereigns (systemic risk) from that of sovereign-specific defaults (country risk). Then, we quantify individual...

We examine European banks' exposures to systematic and country-specific sovereign risk. We organize our investigation around a multifactor affine credit risk model estimated on CDS data of different maturities. During the 2008-2015 period, about one third of banks' credit risk is sovereign....

We investigate the nature of sovereign credit risk for selected Asian and European countries based on a set of sovereign CDS data over an eight-year period that includes the episode of the 2008-2009 global financial crisis. The principal component analysis results indicate that there exists...