Less economic integration would make it difficult for the ECB to stabilise the euro area economies. Symmetric monetary policy cannot do anything about this and individual countries would need to use fiscal policy tools

We develop an agent-based model for the euro area that fulfils widely recommended requirements for nextgeneration macroeconomic models by i) incorporating financial frictions, ii) relaxing the requirement of rational expectations, and iii) including heterogeneous agents. Using macroeconomic and...

The COVID-19 crisis has affected economic sectors very heterogeneously, with possible risks for permanent losses in some sectors. This paper presents a sectoral-level, bottom- up method to estimate euro area potential outputin order to assess the impact of the crisis on it. The estimates are...

The advent of the 4th Industrial Revolution has made it inevitable for firms worldwide to modify their business models to integrate ICTs into their operations. The lockdown measures to contain the COVID-19 pandemic appear to have accelerated this process as many businesses, particularly in the...

As part of the Eurosystem’s annual banknote production planning, the national central banks draw up forecasts estimating the volumes of national-issued banknotes in circulation for the three years ahead. As at the end of 2021, more than 80 per cent of euro banknotes in circulation (cumulated...

We estimate the euro area output gap by applying the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition based on a large Bayesian vector autoregression. Our approach incorporates multivariate information through the inclusion of a wide range of variables in the analysis and addresses data issues associated with the...

We evaluate residual projection strategies in the context of a large-scale macro model of the euro area and smaller benchmark time-series models. The exercises attempt to measure the accuracy of model-based forecasts simulated both out-of-sample and in-sample. Both exercises incorporate...