This paper describes recent work to strengthen nowcasting capacity at the IMF’s European department. It motivates and compiles datasets of standard and nontraditional variables, such as Google search and air quality. It applies standard dynamic factor models (DFMs) and several machine learning...

In a closed economy general equilibrium model, Hopenhayn and Rogerson (1993) find large welfare gains to removing firing restrictions. We explore the extent to which international trade alters this result. When economies trade, labor market policies in one country spill over to other countries...

We investigate the hypothesis of regional convergence in the per-capita GDP in 242 European regions (NUTS2) during the 2000-2021 period. The literature shows mixed results, from absolute convergence towards a joint long-run distribution to multiple regimes (convergence club). Our results show a...

Interested in fundamental analysis and inspired by Bartram and Grinblatt (2018 & 2021), we apply linear regression (LR) and tree-based machine learning (ML) methods to estimate monthly peer-implied fair values of European stocks from 21 accounting variables. Comparing LR and ML models, we...

Carbon leakage provides an efficiency argument for unilateral climate policy to differentiate emission prices in favor of emission-intensive and trade-exposed sectors. At the same time, differential emission pricing can be (mis-)used as a beggar-thy-neighbor policy to exploit terms of trade....