In structural vector autoregressive models of United States and euro area manufacturing, we use sign restrictions to identify shocks that alter the frictions to Chinese supply chain trade. We find a quantitatively significant role of such shocks for the decline of US manufacturing output at the...

This study uncovers a cross-border financial diversification motive related to goods and services trade. Using the IMF CPIS panel data set for a broad set of country pairs and for the period 2001-2012, I find empirical evidence that the share of equity in a bilateral portfolio decreases with...

Over the past decade, geopolitical developments - and the policy responses to these by major economies around the world - have challenged economic openness and the process of globalisation, with implications for the economic environment in which central banks operate. The return of war to Europe...