This paper proposes a new model-based method to obtain a coincident indicator for the business cycle. A dynamic factor model with trend components and a common cycle component is considered which can be estimated using standard maximum likelihood methods. The multivariate unobserved components...

The NAIRU is a key component of potential output and as such critically affects output gap estimates. In May 2014, the European Commission changed its specification of the NAIRU for several countries and lowered its NAIRU estimates - in the case of Spain from 26.6% to 20.7% for 2015. To test the...

This article analyses the frequency components of European business cycles using real GDP by employing multiresolution decomposition (MRD) with the use of maximal overlap discrete wavelet transforms (MODWT). Static wavelet variance and correlation analysis is performed, and phasing is studied...

The paper considers some of the issues emerging from the discrete wavelet analysis of popular bivariate spectral quantities such as the coherence and phase spectra and the frequency-dependent time delay. The approach utilised here is based on the maximal overlap discrete Hilbert wavelet...

We investigate the evolution of co-movement and lead-lag relationships between the nominal effective European exchange rate and the largest European stock markets in the time and frequency dimension. We decompose the financial return series into different time scales and apply the cross-wavelet...

The paper considers some of the issues emerging from the discrete wavelet analysis of popular bivariate spectral quantities such as the coherence and phase spectra and the frequency-dependent time delay. The approach utilised here is based on the maximal overlap discrete Hilbert wavelet...

This paper builds an unobserved components model that combines a multivariate filter approach with a Cobb-Douglas production function. This combination allows potential output estimates to incorporate more economic structure than the traditional production function approach, while retaining the...