This paper deals with economic growth in Europe. The special emphasis is in key institutional factors that are commonly assumed to affect aggregate growth: functioning of labor markets, availability of labor and capital, and the size of government. For more explicit measures, we use the data on...

This paper focuses on the determination of inflation expectations. The following two questions are examined: How much do inflation expectations reflect different economic and institutional regime shifts and in which way do inflation expectations adjust to past inflation? The basic idea in the...

In this paper, we examine how professional forecasters' expectations and expectation uncertainty have reacted to the ECB's interest rate decisions and non-conventional monetary policy measures during the period 1999-2017. The analysis makes use of a conventional dif-in-dif type set up with...

We investigate how European banks' overnight borrowing costs depend on bank size. We use the Eurosystem's proprietary interbank daily loan data on euro-denominated transactions from 2008-2014. We find that large banks have had a clear borrowing cost advantage over small banks and that this...

We investigate the relationship between the daily average interbank overnight borrowing rate (AOR) and the credit default swap price (CDS) of 60 banks using the Eurosystem's proprietary data from mid-2008 to mid-2013. We find that the AOR which is observable only by the competent Eurosystem...

​This paper studies forecasts errors at the micro level using two alternative survey data sets. The main focus is on inflation and real GDP growth forecasts in the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters. For comparison, inflation forecasts in the US Survey of Professional Forecasters are also...

We construct a measure of a bank's relative creditworthiness from Eurosystem's proprietary overnight loan data: the bank's “average overnight borrowing rate spread, relative to overnight rate index” (AOR). We investigate the dynamic relationship between the AOR and the credit default swap...

​We model banks' loan losses with a panel of European countries for the period 1982–2012 using three country-specific macro variables: output growth shocks, real interest rates, and a measure of excessive private sector indebtedness. We find that a drop in output has an intensified impact on...