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Forecasting business-cycle turning points with (relatively large) linear systems in real time : conference paper

Schreiber, Sven - 2013 - This preliminary version: March 2013

with zero restrictions) to forecast the relevant underlying variable(s), and in a second step to derive the probability of … a suitably defined turning point from the forecast probability density function. This approach will never fail …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010344635

Assessing the macroeconomic forecasting performance of boosting : evidence for the United States, the Euro Area, and Germany ; conference paper

Buchen, Teresa; Wohlrabe, Klaus - 2014

The use of large datasets for macroeconomic forecasting has received a great deal of interest recently. Boosting is one possible method of using high-dimensional data for this purpose. It is a stage-wise additive modelling procedure, which, in a linear specification, becomes a variable selection...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010491104

MIDAS regressions with time-varying parameters : an application to corporate bond spreads and GDP in the Euro area ; conference paper

Schumacher, Christian - 2014 - 3 February 2014

the estimation approach. A real-time application to the relationship between daily corporate bond spreads and quarterly …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010481353

Point and density forecasts for the Euro area using many predictors : are large BVARs really superior?

Berg, Tim Oliver; Henzel, Steffen - 2013

Forecast models with large cross-sections are often subject to overparameterization leading to unstable parameter … sufficient prior information dominates competing approaches. In this paper we evaluate the forecast performance of large BVAR in … ranking of the different approaches depends inter alia on the target variable, the forecast horizon, the state of the business …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010342246

Towards European skill needs forecasting

Zukersteinova, Alena (ed.); … - 2007

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003499046

Household's disagreement on inflation expectations and socioeconomic media exposure in Germany

Menz, Jan-Oliver; Poppitz, Philipp - 2013

suggest that household-specific inflation rates and group-specific news consumption accounts for the higher forecast errors of …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010338395

Activity-based approaches to travel analysis

Ettema, Dick (ed.); Timmermans, Harry J. P. (contributor) - 1997 - 1. ed.

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013469515

A latent dynamic factor approach to forecasting multivariate stock market volatility : conference paper

Gribisch, Bastian - 2013

This paper proposes a latent dynamic factor model for low- as well as high-dimensional realized covariance matrices of stock returns. The approach is based on the matrix logarithm and allows for flexible dynamic dependence patterns by combining common latent factors driven by HAR dynamics and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010341025

Can measures of broadband infrastructure improve predictions of economic growth?

Mayer, Walter James (contributor); Madden, Gary (contributor) - International Telecommunications Society - 2014

This paper investigates whether predictions of future economic growth can be improved by using standard measures of broadband infrastructure. The investigation is carried out by comparing the predictive accuracy of dynamic panel models of economic growth estimated with and without measures of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010470679

Exchange rate economics : where do we stand?

De Grauwe, Paul (ed.) - 2005

Recent theoretical developments in exchange rate economics have led to important new insights into the functioning of the foreign exchange market. The simple models of the 1970s, which could not withstand empirical evaluation, have been succeeded by more complex models that draw on theoretical...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013481744