We study interest rates transmission to savings at low and negative rates. Exploiting cohorts of consumers from a data-rich multi-country survey, we show how the strength of interest rate transmission to savings varies with the level of nominal interest rates. This response is positive when...

We show that a .scal expansion by the core economies of the euro area would have a large and positive impact on periphery GDP assuming that policy rates remain low for a prolonged period. Under our preferred model speci.cation, an expansion of core government spending equal to one percent of...

After the recent financial crisis of 2007, a connection between monetary policy and financial stability has started to be thoroughly investigated. One of the particular areas of this research field deals with the role of various financial variables in the monetary policy rules. The main purpose...

We analyze the economic performance of di§erent monetary policy strategies, or rules, in a low interest rate environment, using simulations with a DSGE model which has been estimated for the euro area. We study how often the e§ective lower bound of interest rates (ELB) is likely to bind, and...

We construct a slope factor from changes in federal funds futures of different horizons. Slope predicts stock returns at the weekly frequency: faster monetary policy easing positively predicts excess returns. Investors can achieve increases in weekly Sharpe ratios of 20% conditioning on the...

The present paper uses survey data on expected consumer price developments to analyse the role of inflation expectations in the inflation process. The survey measures of price expectations are derived from the European Commission's Consumer Survey and from the surveys of professional experts...

We develop a theoretical model that features a business cycle-dependent relation between out- put, price inflation and inflation expectations, augmenting the model by Svensson (1997) with a nonlinear Phillips curve that reflects the rationale underlying the capacity constraint theory (Macklem...

We explain the role of the Phillips Curve in the analysis of the economic outlook and the formulation of monetary policy at the ECB. First, revisiting the structural Phillips Curve, we highlight the challenges in recovering structural parameters from reduced-form estimates and relate the...

We explain the role of the Phillips Curve at the ECB in the analysis of the economic outlook and the formulation of monetary policy. First, revisiting the structural Phillips Curve, we highlight the challenges in recovering structural parameters from reduced-form estimates and relate the...