I characterize optimal monetary and fiscal policy in a stochastic New Keynesian model when nominal interest rates may occasionally hit the zero lower bound. The benevolent policymaker controls the short-term nominal interest rate and the level of government spending. Under discretionary policy,...

We study interest rates transmission to savings at low and negative rates. Exploiting cohorts of consumers from a data-rich multi-country survey, we show how the strength of interest rate transmission to savings varies with the level of nominal interest rates. This response is positive when...

This paper estimates a series of shocks to hit the US economy during the Great Depression, using a New Keynesian model with unemployment and bargaining frictions. Shocks to long-run inflation expectations appear to account for much of the cyclical behavior of employment, while an increase in...

We show that a .scal expansion by the core economies of the euro area would have a large and positive impact on periphery GDP assuming that policy rates remain low for a prolonged period. Under our preferred model speci.cation, an expansion of core government spending equal to one percent of...

After the recent financial crisis of 2007, a connection between monetary policy and financial stability has started to be thoroughly investigated. One of the particular areas of this research field deals with the role of various financial variables in the monetary policy rules. The main purpose...

We analyze the economic performance of di§erent monetary policy strategies, or rules, in a low interest rate environment, using simulations with a DSGE model which has been estimated for the euro area. We study how often the e§ective lower bound of interest rates (ELB) is likely to bind, and...

The business cycle is alive and well, and real variables respond to it more or less as they always did. Witness the Great Recession. In ation, in contrast, has gone quiescent. This paper studies the sources of this disconnect using VARs and an estimated DSGE model. It finds that the disconnect...

In a simple two-sector New Keynesian model, sticky prices generate a counterfactual negative comovement between the output of durable and nondurable goods following a monetary policy shock. We show that heterogeneous factor markets allow any combination of strictly positive price stickiness to...

The present paper uses survey data on expected consumer price developments to analyse the role of inflation expectations in the inflation process. The survey measures of price expectations are derived from the European Commission's Consumer Survey and from the surveys of professional experts...

We develop a theoretical model that features a business cycle-dependent relation between out- put, price inflation and inflation expectations, augmenting the model by Svensson (1997) with a nonlinear Phillips curve that reflects the rationale underlying the capacity constraint theory (Macklem...