Building on the New Area Wide Model, we develop a 4-region macroeconomic model of the euro area and the world economy. The model (EAGLE, Euro Area and Global Economy model) is microfounded and designed for conducting quantitative policy analysis of macroeconomic interdependence across regions...

This paper compares the forecasting performance of three different econometric models for the Eurozone and the USA: a vector auto regression (VAR), a Bayesian vector auto regression (BVAR), and a structural vector error correction model (SVEC). The forecast evaluation is based on 19 vintages of...

The paper proposes a data driven adaptive model selection strategy. The selection crite- rion measures economic exante forecasting content by means of trading implied cash flows. Empirical evidence suggests that the proposed strategy is neither exposed to selection bias nor to the risk of...

Economic policy makers, international organisations and private-sector forecasters commonly use short-term forecasts of real GDP growth based on monthly indicators, such as industrial production, retail sales and confidence surveys. An assessment of the reliability of such tools and of the...

This book discusses recent developments in theoretical and empirical business cycle analysis, identifying possible applications of sophisticated tools by private and public institutions involved in the analysis of economic fluctuations and facilitating interaction between academics, researchers...