In this speech, the Governor notes that monetary union is fundamentally a political rather than an economic issue, and that the politics of monetary union is for elected politicians. But it is also an economic issue: he goes on to survey the pros and cons of the single currency in the context of...

In this speech, the Governor first discusses the long-term changes that have occurred in the approach to economic management in the United Kingdom, then sets out the improvement in recent economic performance. The Governor goes on to say that the economic problem for the United Kingdom is the...

In this speech the Governor explains how, in the face of a slowing world economy and a continuing strong exchange rate, the Monetary Policy Committee have cut UK interest rates to encourage the growth of domestic demand and so keep on track to hit the inflation target. Although the events of 11...

We propose a new method for medium-term forecasting using exogenous information. We first show how a shifting-mean autoregressive model can be used to describe characteristic features in inflation series. This implies that we decompose the inflation process into a slowly moving nonstationary...