The contribution of energy shocks to euro-area inflation in 2022 is larger than that of shocks to aggregate and supply … energy shocks, growth and inflation would have been lower. A New Keynesian model rationalises this result with a sufficiently …

After almost four decades of price stability, inflation has recently approached historical highs. Initially driven by … global energy and food price increases, the magnitude of the surge in inflation caught central banks and markets by surprise … monetary policy tightening, inflation upside risks are large. How can central banks restore control – and with it their own …

In recent years the world’s two largest inflation-targeting central banks – the US Federal Reserve (the Fed) and the …, both revisions quickly became antiquated when inflation started to rise again in the wake of the pandemic. The change in … macroeconomic context (from stubbornly low inflation to persistent higher inflation) led both central banks to advocate ‘policy …

This paper uses real-time data to show that inflation and either the output gap or unemployment, the variables which … coefficients on inflation and the real economic activity measure are constrained to be the same for the U.S. and the Euro Area. The … evidence is stronger with inflation forecasts than with inflation rates and with real-time data than with revised data. Bad …

This paper introduces a new decomposition of euro area headline inflation into core, cyclical, and residual components …. Our new core inflation measure, the structural core inflation rate, is the expected headline inflation, conditional to … forecasting ability for headline inflation and other available core inflation measures routinely used at the ECB for internal or …