In this paper we explore the nexus between cross-border trade integration and monetary policy. We first review the evidence that trade liberalization has increased the degree of integration in North America and conclude that, while robust structural inferences remain elusive, there is sufficient...

This paper takes stock of the ECB's macroeconometric modelling strategy by focusing on the models and applications used in the Forecasting and Policy Modelling Division. We focus on the guiding principles underpinning the current portfolio of the main macroeconomic models and illustrate how they...

This paper presents the updated macroprudential stress test for the euro area banking system, comprising around 100 of the largest euro area credit institutions across 19 countries. The approach involves modelling banks' reactions to changing economic conditions. It also examines the effects of...

Financial stability risks have become topical in the wake of the global financial crisis and the subsequent extended period of very low interest rates. This paper investigates the significance of the mix of monetary and fiscal policies for financial stability through counterfactual simulations...

To better understand the dynamics of the Chinese economy and its interaction with the global economy, the authors incorporate China into an existing model for the G-3 economies (i.e., the United States, the euro area, and Japan), paying particular attention to modelling the exchange rate and...

This article analyzes how forest resources have been used in Brazil since 1930, in an attempt to prove two hypotheses. The first hypothesis is that the destruction of our forests and the unsustainable use of the remaining forests have always been linked to the developmental policies adopted in...

While the development of scientific theories and measurement concepts has always been strongly intertwined, model-based measurements, specified as parameters in a statistical model, have been receiving increasing attention over the last decades. In this paper, we analyze the ontological and...

One view in the literature is that the East Asian economic model is superior to other models in the Global South (i.e. in the developing world), at least in terms of catch-up development and possibly even in innovations beyond the technological frontier. Unlike economic models in Latin America...

This paper provides a simple weekly model of the regular supply of liquidity in the euro area, with a view to understanding the functioning of the euro area money market. The main result of the analysis is that liquidity has normally been provided by the ECB in a neutral and smooth manner, but...