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We analyze the role of fiscal policy and intra-European trade in business cycle synchronization in the EU for the … between trade integration and cyclical synchronization are subject to endogeneity problems. We instrument fiscal budget … trade integration are important determinants of cyclical synchronization. We can conclude that once a high degree of trade …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011392349
Studies often conclude that the proposed Southern African Development Community monetary union would be disastrous and not optimal for all member countries. This is because of the observed low, and sometimes negative business cycle correlation amongst member countries. However, it has been...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011882592
All explorations of the future of the Euro show serious risks for its survival in the present form. The road map of the Five EU Presidents presented in 2015 is far from sufficient to reduce the risks of the Euro zone falling apart by Brexit type developments or new economic shocks. The EU...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011582732
The paper examines the effects of asymmetries in fiscal policy conduct upon the correlation of business cycles in the European Union. In particular the paper estimates the effects of fiscal indiscipline and dissimilarity on business cycle correlation in the period 1996-2012 using a panel of 27...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010429842
This paper examines the degree of trade integration and business cycle synchronisation between eight Balkan countries and the Euro area over the period 2000:1-2011:4. The main findings are that Slovenia and the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia exhibit a high level of openness relative to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010459812
States in the region economy, we use these three economies as our "reference countries" to study the synchronization of their … synchronization of their business cycles, including trade linkages, financial linkages, and policy similarities. From our panel data … the degree of their business cycle synchronization. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011281409
specializations and economic policy coordination, contributed to the synchronization of business cycles in the enlarged EU. We … synchronization, specifically between incumbent and new EU members. More coordinated fiscal policies and, particularly in EU 15, the … alignment of monetary policies promoted synchronization. Nevertheless, flexible exchange rates remained important adjustment …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011346443
This research note discusses the Euro crisis in Greece in light of the referendum of July the 5th. It lays out the social and political costs of a GREXIT, but also of a continuing austerity policy. It proposes a reform policy fostering growth in Greece and discusses the role of conditionality....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011308548
We review the literature on business cycle correlation between the euro area and the Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs), a topic that has gained attention as the newest EU members approach monetary union. Our meta-analysis of 35 identified publications suggests some CEECs already...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010261431
In this paper, we focus on how European economic integration has affected the synchronization and the magnitude of … business cycles are highly synchronized, although we also find that synchronization was higher during periods with highly … flexible exchange rates. In addition we find a positive tradeoff between timing and magnitude such that more synchronization …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010320937