In this paper, we present a disaggregated framework for the analysis of past and projected structural developments in the most relevant revenue and expenditure categories and the fiscal balance. The framework, in particular, distinguishes between the effects of discretionary fiscal policy and of...

The paper demonstrates that policy makers may have a precautionary motive to undertake more labor-market reform--and hence attain lower equilibrium unemployment--inside a monetary union than outside. The reason is a desire to reduce the utility cost of variations in employment when asymmetric...

The results from the second wave of the Eurosysystem's Household Finance and Consumption Survey (HFCS) indicate that Cyprus households experienced very large falls in their incomes and value of real assets between 2009/2010 and 2013/2014. However, despite their worsening financial situation...

Almost three years on since the Brexit referendum and two since the intense negotiations between the parties began, the failure by the British Parliament to ratify the November 2018 agreement between the UK Government and the other EU governments has led to a situation of great complexity. With...

The European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) are shadowed by professionals and academic economists who provide a separate policy rate recommendation in advance of the central bank's announcement. We explore differences between shadow and actual committee decisions based on an...

Indicators of government activity must be carefully designed to be relevant, credible and accountable. Frustration with reform pressures suggests that measures of policy activity are not providing accurate information. In fact, indicators of product or labour market regulation fail to measure...

We empirically assess the impact of competitiveness measured by unit labor costs for current account balances in the Euro area. For this purpose, we estimate a panel with annual observations from 2000 to 2013. Our findings confirm the importance of competitiveness: Higher unit labor costs growth...

We provide an early assessment of the Juncker Commission's contributions to the ongoing reform of the euro area. In doing so, we present a chronological summary of the reform process up to 2014. At the time, the euro area architecture had undergone many changes. These were mainly focused on risk...

The paper analyzes various mechanisms through which monetary union in Europe may affect unemployment. The focus is on the political incentives for labor-market reform. There will be more reform outside than inside the EMU to the extent that a national inflation bias can be reduced. But if there...

This paper is an exercise in dating the Euro area business cycle on a monthly basis. Using a quite flexible interpolation routine. we construct several monthly series of Euro area GDP, and then apply the Bry-Boschan (1971) procedure. To account for the asymmetry in growth regimes and duration...