This paper analyses the contribution of survey data, in particular various sentiment indicators, to nowcasts of quarterly euro area GDP. It uses a genuine real-time dataset that is constructed from original press releases in order to transform the actual dataflow into an interpretable flow of...

Many studies estimate the impact of exposure to some quasi-experimental policy or event using a panel event study design. These models, as a generalized extension of 'difference-in-differences' or two-way fixed effect models, allow for dynamic lags and leads to the event of interest to be...

This paper studies the relationship between lobbying, free emission allowance allocation and firm outcomes in the European Union Emissions Trading System (ETS). I draw on administrative data from the EU Transpareny Register (TR) and the European Union Transaction Log (EUTL), and construct a...

We present a new type of unsupervised learning problem in which we find a small set of representative regions that approximates a larger dataset. These regions may be presented to a practitioner along with additional information in order to help the practitioner explore the data set. An...

Factor models can cope with many variables without running into scarce degrees of freedom problems often faced in a regression-based analysis. In this article we review recent work on dynamic factor models that have become popular in macroeconomic policy analysis and forecasting. By means of an...

We examine the impact of two important non-tariff measures presumed to simultaneously affect firms’ decisions to export to the European Union (EU). As a novelty to the literature, we analyse the impacts of EU pesticide standards on African exports alongside a complementary non-tariff measure...

Monetary policymakers and long-term investors would benefit greatly from a measure of underlying inflation that uses all relevant information, is available in real time, and forecasts inflation better than traditional underlying inflation measures such as core inflation measures. This paper...

This paper describes an algorithm to compute the distribution of conditional forecasts, i.e. projections of a set of variables of interest on future paths of some other variables, in dynamic systems. The algorithm is based on Kalman filtering methods and is computationally viable for large...

Both theorists and practitioners continue to show interest in transatlantic burden-sharing. International security and political economy scholarship offers plausible explanations for transatlantic imbalances in military expenditures. However, NATO Allies and EU Member States have pledged to one...

The primary objective of this paper is to propose two nonlinear extensions for macroeconomic forecasting using large datasets. First, we propose an alternative technique for factor estimation, i.e., kernel principal component analysis, which allows the factors to have a nonlinear relationship to...