This paper applies volatility measures and VAR spectral analytic techniques to give a thorough description of the salient business cycle characteristics of central NIPA aggregates for the G7. Furthermore, their role in contributing to the supranational G7 and EURO15 cyclic dynamics is...

We evaluate residual projection strategies in the context of a large-scale macro model of the euro area and smaller benchmark time-series models. The exercises attempt to measure the accuracy of model-based forecasts simulated both out-of-sample and in-sample. Both exercises incorporate...

We jointly estimate the natural rate of interest, the natural rate of unemployment, expected inflation, and potential output for the Euro area, the United States, Sweden, Australia, and the United Kingdom. Particular attention is paid to time-variation in (i) the data-generation process for...

This paper proposes a new model-based method to obtain a coincident indicator for the business cycle. A dynamic factor model with trend components and a common cycle component is considered which can be estimated using standard maximum likelihood methods. The multivariate unobserved components...

This research paper provides a solid historical overview of European industrial policy during the post-WWII era, extending the time horizon up to the 1990s. Our research focus is the EU 15. Unlike previous publications, this paper outlines the most important characteristics and drivers of...

A Plan for a European Economic Community was developed at the University of Berlin in 1942. There are striking similarities with the European Economic Community that was introduced in 1957 – and which became the foundation stone of the European Union. Particularly striking is the innate...

A Plan for a European Economic Community was developed at the University of Berlin in 1942. There are striking similarities with the European Economic Community that was introduced in 1957—and which became the foundation stone of the European Union. Particularly striking is the innate...