This article uses a crisis index based on an average of the variations in currency and financial crises indicators, referred to as “twin crises”, adjusting them to the same volatility. Thus, the objective is to measure the degree of vulnerability to twin crises within a group of 19 countries...

This paper examines the determinants of economic and financial linkages between developed and developing countries, with special focus on East Asia. The synchronization of business cycles depends upon trade flows, production structures, and to a lesser extent, capital account openness. The...

This paper investigates whether market information is reliable to predict financial deterioration of large Too Big To Fail banks in Asia. A stepwise logit model is first estimated to isolate the optimal set of accounting indicators to predict rating downgrades. The model is then extended to...

This paper discusses adjustments of capital account restrictions and exchange rate regimes in East Asia. Monetary authorities have two options for these adjustments: gradual adjustments or rapid adjustments. We analyze the costs and benefits for both adjustment options in each area, i.e.,...

The Asian crisis is a textbook case of the "financial instability hypothesis" first expressed in 1966 by the late Hyman Minsky. It began with what Minsky described as "the economics of euphoria:...The confident expectation of a steady stream of prosperity gross profits [produces a]...