Sticky price monetary models of the real exchange rate, while reasonable theoretically, have been disappointing empirically. The most likely reason is that shocks to the market's expectation of the future equilibrium real exchange rate weaken the stability of the statistical association between...

Sticky price monetary models of exchange rates, while reasonable theoretically, have been disappointing empirically. Out-of-sample predictions have been little or no better than those from a naive model of no change. The most likely reason is that shocks to the market's expectation of the future...