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Forecasting Brazilian output in the presence of breaks: a comparison of linear and nonlinear models

Chauvet, Marcelle; Lima, Elcyon C.R.; Vasquez, Brisne - 2002

This paper compares the forecasting performance of linear and nonlinear models under the presence of structural breaks … probabilities of recessions are used to analyze the Brazilian business cycle. The ability of each model in forecasting out …-of-sample the growth rates of GDP is examined. The forecasting ability of the two models is also compared with linear specifications …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010397390

Conditional forecasts in dynamic multivariate models

Waggoner, Daniel F.; Zha, Tao - 1998

In the existing literature, conditional forecasts in the vector autoregressive (VAR) framework have not been commonly presented with probability distributions or error bands. This paper develops Bayesian methods for computing such distributions or bands. It broadens the class of conditional...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010397440

Bayesian methods for dynamic multivariate models

Sims, Christopher A.; Zha, Tao - 1996

If multivariate dynamic models are to be used to guide decision-making, it is important that it be possible to provide probability assessments of their results. Bayesian VAR models in the existing literature have not commonly (in fact, not at all as far as we know) been presented with error...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010397465

Prior parameter uncertainty: Some implications for forecasting and policy analysis with VAR models

Robertson, John C.; Tallman, Ellis W. - 1999

. In this paper, we examine how the treatment of prior uncertainty about parameter values can affect forecasting accuracy …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010397583

How stable is the predictive power of the yield curve? Evidence from Germany and the United States

Estrella, Arturo; Rodrigues, Anthony P.; Schich, Sebastian - 2000

Empirical research over the last decade has uncovered predictive relationships between the slope of the yield curve and subsequent real activity and inflation. Some of these relationships are highly significant, but their theoretical motivations suggest that they may not be stable over time. We...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010283311

Evaluating covariance matrix forecasts in a value-at-risk framework

Lopez, Jose A.; Walter, Christian A. - Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco - 2000

Covariance matrix forecasts of financial asset returns are an important component of current practice in financial risk management. A wide variety of models, ranging from matrices of simple summary measures to covariance matrices implied from option prices, are available for generating such...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005514423

Prior parameter uncertainty: Some implications for forecasting and policy analysis with VAR models

Robertson, John C.; Tallman, Ellis W. - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta - 1999

. In this paper, we examine how the treatment of prior uncertainty about parameter values can affect forecasting accuracy …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005514597

Structural change and the combination of forecasts

Diebold, Francis X.; Pauly, Peter - Federal Reserve Board (Board of Governors of the … - 1986

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005514831

Regulatory evaluation of value-at-risk models

Lopez, Jose A. - Federal Reserve Bank of New York - 1997

Beginning in 1998, U.S. commercial banks may determine their regulatory capital requirements for financial market risk exposure using value-at-risk (VaR) models i.e., models of the time-varying distributions of portfolio returns. Currently, regulators have available three hypothesis-testing...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005526313

The accuracy of two forecasting techniques: some evidence and an interpretation

McNees, Stephen K. - In: New England Economic Review (1986) Mar, pp. 20-31

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005526666