Since Black, Jensen, and Scholes (1972) and Fama and MacBeth (1973), the two-pass cross-sectional regression (CSR) methodology has become the most popular tool for estimating and testing beta asset pricing models. In this paper, we focus on the case in which simple regression betas are used as...

Since Black, Jensen, and Scholes (1972) and Fama and MacBeth (1973), the two-pass cross-sectional regression (CSR) methodology has become the most popular approach for estimating and testing asset pricing models. Statistical inference with this method is typically conducted under the assumption...

This paper uses minimum-variance (MV) admissible kernels to estimate risk premia associated with economic risk variables and to test multi-beta models. Estimating risk premia using MV kernels is appealing because it avoids the need to 1) identify all relevant sources of risk and 2) assume a...

Many economic applications call for simultaneous equations VAR modeling. We show that the existing importance sampler can be prohibitively inefficient for this type of models. We develop a Gibbs simulator that works for both simultaneous and recursive VAR models with a much broader range of...

The authors present a theoretical and empirical framework for computing and evaluating linear projections conditional on hypothetical paths of monetary policy. A modest policy intervention does not significantly shift agents' beliefs about policy regime and does not induce the changes in...

This paper presents a careful reexamination of Chan, Karolyi, Longstaff, and Sanders (CKLS 1992). By redefining the possible regime shift period in line with evidence from known policy changes and past empirical research, we find evidence that contradicts the major results in their paper. The...

If multivariate dynamic models are to be used to guide decision-making, it is important that it be possible to provide probability assessments of their results. Bayesian VAR models in the existing literature have not commonly (in fact, not at all as far as we know) been presented with error...

We use generalized method of moments to estimate a rational expectations aggregate demand-aggregate supply macroeconomic model for five European economies. Our aim is to examine whether supply or demand shocks have predominated in the major European economies during the post-war era and whether...

Cubic splines have long been used to extract the discount, yield, and forward rate curves from coupon bond data. McCulloch used regression splines to estimate the discount function, and, more recently, Fisher, Nychka, and Zervos used smoothed splines, with the roughness penalty selected by...