primary contagion driver, rather than the trade channel. Given the substantial degree of financial contagion, I run a series … similarly severe contagion in the future, so long as there is not capital immobility to the degree that the local sovereign can …

This paper proposes an original three-part sequential testing procedure (STP), with which to test for contagion using a … test is applied to the correlation matrix to identify and date the potential contagion mechanism. As a third element, the … STP tests for the distinctiveness of the break dates previously found. Compared to traditional contagion tests in a …