The German economy expanded vigorously in 2011; GDP increased by 3%. During the year, production reached its pre-crisis level. The outlook for 2012, however, is not favourable. Although the German economy will not slide into recession - unlike many other euro-area countries - declining demand within...

Die deutsche Wirtschaft ist im Jahr 2011 weiter kräftig gewachsen; das Bruttoinlandsprodukt (BIP) stieg um 3 %. Im Jahresverlauf wurde das Vorkrisenniveau überschritten. Die Aussichten für das Jahr 2012 sind nicht besonders günstig. Zwar dürfte es in Deutschland - im Unterschied zu mehreren...

The consequences of the ongoing 2020 coronavirus pandemic are leaving deep marks on the global economy. In the first quarter of 2020, global production sank by 15.5 percent over the course of the worldwide lockdown. Since containment measures in many countries were mainly implemented during the...

We present non-linear binary Probit models to capture the turning points in global economic activity as well as in advanced and emerging economies from 1980 to 2016. For that purpose, we use four different business cycle dating methods to identify the regimes (upswings, downswings). We find that...