Financial crises pose unique challenges for forecast accuracy. Using the IMF's Monitoring of Fund Arrangement (MONA … informational value as they consistently outperform naive forecast approaches. However, we also document that there is room for … improvement: two thirds of the key macroeconomic variables that we examine are forecast inefficiently and 6 variables (growth of …

This paper introduces a simple methodology to forecast international trade. The main innovation is to calculate non … the current change in expenditure to forecast the current imports. Using U.S. data on aggregate expenditure and good …