This paper introduces a Divisia monetary aggregate for Germany and explores its information content for the Great Recession. Divisia money and the corresponding simple sum aggregate are highly correlated in normal times but begin to diverge before the crisis. Out of sample forecast analysis and...

This paper uses several macroeconomic and financial indicators within a Markov Switching (MS) framework to predict the turning points of the business cycle. The presented model is applied to monthly German real-time data covering the recession and the recovery after the financial crisis. We show...

This paper considers the primary challenges faced by the Eurozone and caused by the 2008+ crisis. It suggests that one should distinguish among institutional, conceptual (model/paradigm) and real economic challenges. As a factor that influences progress in other areas, the latter topic is a...