Macroeconomic imbalances increase the vulnerability of an economy to adverse shocks, which in turn can lead to crises with severe economic and social costs. We propose an early warning model that predicts such crises. We identify a set of macroeconomic indicators capturing domestic and external...

This paper mainly examines the effect of financial development on the recession, while controlling for potential recession factors. Using panel data of 129 countries spanning 1990-2010, we implemented "Locally Weighted Scatterplot Smoothing", "Local Linear" and "Iteratively Reweighted Least...

We investigate the effects of financial development on recession while controlling for potential recession factors using data of about 129 countries covering the 1990-2010 period. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study examining this relationship using a plural and innovative...

We suppose that the dramatic decline in the European output is more than a cyclical diversion from the potential output. We performed a medium term quantitative analysis combining data based on the production function and growth accounting approach. Our results show that the erosion of the...

The Global Financial Crisis of 2007–2008 ranks among the biggest disruptions of the world economy in decades. The scope and severity of its impact are testified by the fact that 10 years after the crisis none of the world's major economies – Japan, Brazil, USA, Eurozone, Russia, China –...

This study analyses two hypotheses that ascribe the 2008 US financial crisis to capital inflows. The Asian savings glut hypothesis posits that net inflows into high-grade US public bonds from countries running current account surpluses led to the housing boom and bust. An excess of savings over...

The recent Global Financial Crisis (2008-2010) and the accompanying Great Recession (2008-2011) show that the level and the rate of monetary and financial systems integration deployed within the Euro area is not sustainable in the long run. Instead of acting as a buffer against external shocks...

In this paper, we present the root cause of the American financial crisis in 2007. We show that financial integration and capital flow volatility is the factor that creates a climate conducive to the emergence of the crisis in the USA and led to its spread to the rest of the world. On the...

The paper deals with the trends in the world and Russian economies towards development of a new post-crisis system, including technological and structural transformation. Three main scenarios of Russian economic development (conservative, innovation and acceleration) are discussed basing on...

Global crisis forms new economic policy agenda which raises new questions for economic theory and economic thinking. This paper deals with these new intellectual challenges. Among them: growth theory and the risks of secular stagnation, unconventional macroeconomic policy and the prospects of...