This paper analyses Czech and Hungarian index options that are traded on the Austrian Futures and Options Exchange. We find that the Poisson jump-diffusion and not the GARCH (1,1) process lends statistical support for the data description. We estimate that approximately four-fifth of 4 percent...

Many macroeconometric models depict situations where the shares of the major demand aggregates in output are stable over time. The joint dynamic behavior of the considered demand aggregate and output may thus be approximated by a cointegrated vector autoregression. However, the shares of many...

I examine whether or not returns on stock markets are a leading indicator for real macroeconomic developments in Austria, Japan and the USA. Further I deal with the concept of stock market efficiency, the question whether or not information from real and financial sectors of the economy is...

Density forecasts have become quite important in economics and finance. For example, such forecasts play a central role in modern financial risk management techniques like Value at Risk. This paper suggests a regression based density forecast evaluation framework as a simple alternative to other...

MOSOE Konjunkturzenit überschritten Die jüngsten Statistiken deuten auf ein weiterhin robustes BIP-Wachstum in den meisten Ländern Mittel‑, Ost- und Südosteuropas (MOSOEL) hin. Der konjunkturelle Höhepunkt scheint allerdings bereits überschritten zu sein. Einerseits lässt die Dynamik...

Sustainablity of Austrian public debt is investigated in the context of political objectives such as stabilizing the business cycle, increasing chances for being re-elected and implementing the ideologies of political parties. Several tests indicate that Austrian fiscal policies were sustainable...

Government agencies and other national and international institutions are asked to perform forecasts over the medium term. In particular, the EU Stability and Growth Pact contains the obligation to formulate stability programmes over four years, covering a general economic outlook as well as the...

The paper describes a model for computing the trend output and the structural budget deficit in Austria. The calculation of trend output is based on a production function approach within a small macroeconomic model of the Austrian economy. A decomposition of public budgets into cyclical and...

For nowcasting and short-term forecasting of industrial production and GDP, business surveys are a vital source of information. They cover information of the recent past as well as developments in the near future. Whereas variations in industrial production indices potentially cover weather...