The HERMES macroeconomic model has been used extensively for over 25 years to carry out medium-term forecasting and scenario analysis of the Irish economy. Most recently the model has been used to generate the scenarios underpinning the 2013 edition of the ESRI's Medium-Term Review. In the long...

This IMK Study is a documentation of the IMK's macro-econometric model of the German economy. Currently the model includes 48 behavioural equations, which are usually specified as error-correction equations, and 61 definitions. The model is based on seasonally unadjusted quarterly national...

We analyze how modeling international dependencies improves forecasts for the global economy based on a Bayesian GVAR with SSVS prior and stochastic volatility. To analyze the source of performance gains, we decompose the predictive joint density into its marginals and a copula term capturing...