Similar Search Results

Bussière, Matthieu - 2013

The 2008 financial crisis has rekindled interest in the issue of early warning signals (EWS) of financial distress. It has also triggered renewed interest in the literature on currency crises, with many countries, especially among emerging market economies, experiencing severe exchange market...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014161434

Predicting the exchange rate path : the importance of using up-to-date observations in the forecasts

Hungnes, Håvard - 2020

Central banks, private banks, statistical agencies and international organizations such as the IMF and OECD typically use information about the exchange rate some weeks before the publication date as the basis for their exchange rate forecasts. In this paper, we test if forecasts can be made...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012236584

Patterns in IMF Growth Forecast Revisions : A Panel Study at Multiple Horizons

Hadzi-Vaskov, Metodij; Ricci, Luca Antonio; Werner, … - 2022

This paper investigates the performance of the IMF WEO growth forecast revisions across different horizons and country groups. We find that: (i) growth revisions in horizons closer to the actual are generally larger, more volatile, and more negative; (ii) on average, growth revisions are in the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013300855

Nowcasting world trade with machine learning : a three-step approach

Chinn, Menzie David; Meunier, Baptiste; Stumpner, Sebastian - 2023

across different horizons and real-time datasets. To further improve performances when forecasting with machine learning, we …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014362630

Nowcasting made easier : a toolbox for economists

Linzenich, Jan; Meunier, Baptiste - 2024

We provide a versatile nowcasting toolbox that supports three model classes (dynamic factor models, large Bayesian VAR, bridge equations) and offers methods to manage data selection and adjust for Covid-19 observations. The toolbox aims at simplifying two key tasks: creating new nowcasting...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015179785

Point and density forecasts for the euro area using Bayesian VARs

Berg, Tim Oliver; Henzel, Steffen - 2014

Recent articles suggest that a Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) with shrinkage is a good forecast device even when the number of variables is large. In this paper we evaluate different variants of the BVAR with respect to their forecast accuracy for euro area real GDP growth and HICP...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010257225

Evaluating point and density forecasts of DSGE models

Wolters, Maik H. - 2013

This paper investigates the accuracy of forecasts from four DSGE models for inflation, output growth and the federal funds rate using a real-time dataset synchronized with the Fed’s Greenbook projections. Conditioning the model forecasts on the Greenbook nowcasts leads to forecasts that are as...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009792175

Evaluating point and density forecasts of DSGE models

Wolters, Maik H. - 2012

This paper investigates the accuracy of point and density forecasts of four DSGE models for inflation, output growth and the federal funds rate. Model parameters are estimated and forecasts are derived successively from historical US data vintages synchronized with the Fed's Greenbook...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010392192

Nowcasting and forecasting economic growth in the Euro area using principal components

Hindrayanto, Irma; Koopman, Siem Jan; Winter, Jasper de - 2014

short-term forecasting models. These empirical findings have been established for different macroeconomic data sets and … specification is most effective in its forecasting performance. Furthermore, the forecast performances of the different … extended empirical out-of-sample forecasting competition for quarterly growth of gross domestic product in the euro area and …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010395082

Forecasting Chinese GDP growth with mixed frequency data : which indicators to look at?

Mikosch, Heiner; Zhang, Ying - 2014 - First version: December 01, 2013, This version: July 10, 2014

indicators for forecasting quarterly Chinese GDP growth. We iterate the evaluation over forecast horizons from 370 days to 1 day … 2009. Industrial production can be quite valuable for now- or even forecasting, but only if it is released shortly after … manufacturing purchasing managers' index of the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics help much for now- or forecasting. Our results …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010376402