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Rationality and Forecasting Accuracy of Exchange Rate Expectations : Evidence from Survey-Based Forecasts
Ince, Onur - 2019
We examine rationality, forecasting accuracy, and economic value of the survey-based exchange rate forecasts for 10 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012903718
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Predicting the exchange rate path : the importance of using up-to-date observations in the forecasts
Hungnes, Håvard - 2020
Central banks, private banks, statistical agencies and international organizations such as the IMF and OECD typically use information about the exchange rate some weeks before the publication date as the basis for their exchange rate forecasts. In this paper, we test if forecasts can be made...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012236584
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In Defense of Early Warning Signals
Bussière, Matthieu - 2013
The 2008 financial crisis has rekindled interest in the issue of early warning signals (EWS) of financial distress. It has also triggered renewed interest in the literature on currency crises, with many countries, especially among emerging market economies, experiencing severe exchange market...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014161434
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Patterns in IMF Growth Forecast Revisions : A Panel Study at Multiple Horizons
Hadzi-Vaskov, Metodij; Ricci, Luca A.; Werner, Alejandro M. - 2022
This paper investigates the performance of the IMF WEO growth forecast revisions across different horizons and country groups. We find that: (i) growth revisions in horizons closer to the actual are generally larger, more volatile, and more negative; (ii) on average, growth revisions are in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013300855
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Forecasting Chinese GDP growth with mixed frequency data : which indicators to look at?
Mikosch, Heiner; Zhang, Ying - 2014 - First version: December 01, 2013, This version: July 10, 2014
indicators for forecasting quarterly Chinese GDP growth. We iterate the evaluation over forecast horizons from 370 days to 1 day … 2009. Industrial production can be quite valuable for now- or even forecasting, but only if it is released shortly after … manufacturing purchasing managers' index of the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics help much for now- or forecasting. Our results …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010376402
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GDPNow : a model for GDP "nowcasting"
Higgins, Patrick - 2014
This paper documents GDPNow, a "nowcasting" model for gross domestic product (GDP) growth that synthesizes the "bridge equation" approach relating GDP subcomponents to monthly source data with the factor model approach used by Giannone, Reichlin, and Small (2008). The GDPNow model forecasts GDP...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010382060
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Point and density forecasts for the euro area using Bayesian VARs
Berg, Tim Oliver; Henzel, Steffen - 2014
Recent articles suggest that a Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) with shrinkage is a good forecast device even when the number of variables is large. In this paper we evaluate different variants of the BVAR with respect to their forecast accuracy for euro area real GDP growth and HICP...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010257225
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Short-term forecasting with mixed-frequency data : a MIDASSO approach
Siliverstovs, Boriss - 2015
regression used in Bai and Ng (2008), called the elastic net (Zou and Hastie, 2005). We illustrate our approach by forecasting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010498420
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Business tendency surveys and macroeconomic fluctuations
Kaufmann, Daniel; Scheufele, Rolf - 2015
encouraging. In a pseudo out-of-sample exercise, our approach beats relevant benchmarks for forecasting CPI inflation and an …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010508347
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Real-time forecasting with a MIDAS VAR
Mikosch, Heiner; Neuwirth, Stefan - 2015 - This version: April 2015
This paper presents a MIDAS type mixed frequency VAR forecasting model. First, we propose a general and compact mixed … pseudo out-of-sample forecasting exercise with US real-time data yields that the mixed frequency VAR substantially improves …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010508351