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We study the long-run interaction between Germany’s economic growth trajectory and demographic aging. Using a comprehensive dataset, we leverage the classical production function approach to estimate potential output growth between 1970 and 2070. We account for the inherent uncertainty in our...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014482654
The Asian Development Outlook (ADO) provides growth and inflation forecasts for more than 40 economies in the region. This paper assesses the accuracy of those forecasts against actual outcomes for the years from 2008 to 2011. The World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecasts by the International...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010241351
Time varying patterns in US growth are analyzed using various univariate model structures, starting from a naive model structure where all features change every period to a model where the slow variation in the conditional mean and changes in the conditional variance are specified together with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010399680
Many empirical studies have shown that factor models produce relatively accurate forecasts compared to alternative short-term forecasting models. These empirical findings have been established for different macroeconomic data sets and different forecast horizons. However, various specifications...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010395082
This paper backtests a nowcast of Japan's real GDP growth. Its distinguishing features are use of genuine real-time data, a new revision analysis to track the nowcast's evolution, and a comparison with a market consensus forecast at 13 monthly forecasting horizons. The nowcast's forecasting...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012834028
Recently introduced measure for Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) seems to have a role to play in forecasting out-of-sample values for the future real economic activity both for the euro area and the UK economies in the monthly data from 1997-2016. Inclusion of EPU measures either for the US, UK...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012962828
Many empirical studies have shown that factor models produce relatively accurate forecasts compared to alternative short-term forecasting models. These empirical findings have been established for different macroeconomic data sets and different forecast horizons. However, various specifications...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013048646
The Asian Development Outlook (ADO) provides growth and inflation forecasts for more than 40 economies in the region. This paper assesses the accuracy of those forecasts against actual outcomes for the years from 2008 to 2011. The World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecasts by the International...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013049286
In this paper we propose a novel approach to obtain the predictive density of global GDP growth. It hinges upon a bottom-up probabilistic model that estimates and combines single countries' predictive GDP growth densities, taking into account cross-country interdependencies. Specifically,we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012829696
Abstract in Russian:Документ включает в себя подробное описание текущих внутренних и внешних макроэкономических условий, а также согласованный прогноз. Анализ...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013314525