The paper compares one-period ahead forecasting performance of linear vector-autoregressive (VAR) models and single-equation Markov-switching (MS) models for two cases: when leading information is available and when it is not. The results show that single-equation MS models tend to perform...

This paper proposes a measure of real-time inflation expectations based on metadata, i.e., data about data, constructed from internet search queries performed on the search engine Google. The forecasting performance of the Google Inflation Search Index (GISI) is assessed relative to 37 other...

This study sheds new light on the question of whether or not sentiment surveys, and the expectations derived from them, are relevant to forecasting economic growth and stock returns, and whether they contain information that is orthogonal to macroeconomic and financial data. I examine 16...

In this paper we propose to exploit the heterogeneity of forecasts produced by different model specifications to measure forecast uncertainty. Our approach is simple and intuitive.It consists in selecting all the models that outperform some benchmark model, and then to construct an empirical...

In this paper, we exploit the heterogeneity in the forecasts obtained by estimating different factor models to measure forecast uncertainty. Our approach is simple and intuitive. It consists first in selecting all the models that outperform some benchmark model, and then in constructing an...

We assess point and density forecasts from a mixed-frequency vector autoregression (VAR) to obtain intra-quarter forecasts of output growth as new information becomes available. The econometric model is specified at the lowest sampling frequency; high frequency observations are treated as...

Naïve 1 forecasts are often used as a benchmark when assessing the accuracy of a set of forecasts. A ratio is obtained to show the upper bound of a forecasting method's accuracy relative to naïve 1 forecasts when the mean squared error is used to measure accuracy. Formulae for the ratio are...

Capital asset pricing model is a popular formula using to calculate asset prices. This research looks at the sample forecasting of three CAPM constant beta model from 2005 to 2014. This research is going to look at the capabilities of CAPM by using the past varying. Five US sectors, five ASEAN...