Narrow search
Showing 1 - 10 of 726
Cover Image
Forecasting with Bayesian Grouped Random Effects in Panel Data
Zhang, Boyuan - 2020
forecasts for short dynamic panel data. We implement a nonparametric Bayesian approach to simultaneously identify coefficients … accurate estimates and score predictive gains over standard panel data estimators. With a data-driven group structure, the BGRE … standard panel data estimators …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012824627
Cover Image
Does central bank transparency and communication affect financial and macroeconomic forecasts?
Lustenberger, Thomas; Rossi, Enzo - 2018
In a large sample of countries across different geographic regions and over a long period of time, we find limited country- and variable-specific effects of central bank transparency on forecast accuracy and their dispersion among a large set of professional forecasts of financial and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011790688
Cover Image
Improving a Term Spread Model to Forecast U.S. Output Growth
Do, Nguyen - 2019
The ability of term spread to forecast U.S. output growth could be improved by two ways: (i) Combining with the Harrod-Domar variable - net saving as a percentage of gross national income - that used to proxy for aggregate supply; and (ii) Using a system of simultaneous equations, in which U.S....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012900448
Cover Image
The U.S. Economy is There a Way Out of the Woods?
Godley, Wynne - 2009
This Strategic Analysis paper provides an analysis of the medium-term forces behind economic growth since 1980, showing that the authors' previous work, grounded in the linkages between growth and the financial balances of the private, public, and foreign sectors of the economy, has proven a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012721003
Cover Image
Is the stock market a leading indicator of economic activity in nigeria?
Ikoku, Alvan E. - In: CBN journal of applied statistics 1 (2010) 1, pp. 17-38
In an effort to address the lacuna in leading indicator studies of African economies and Nigeria in particular, this paper examines the causal relationships among stock market prices, real GDP and the index of industrial production in Nigeria, using quarterly data from 1984Q1 to 2008Q4. Granger...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011477855
Cover Image
Planned fiscal consolidations and growth forecast errors : new panel evidence on fiscal multipliers
Belke, Ansgar; Kronen, Dominik; Osowski, Thomas - 2015
This paper analyzes the effect of planned fiscal consolidation on GDP growth forecast errors from the years 2010–2013 using cross section analyses and fixed effects estimations. Our main findings are that fiscal multipliers have been underestimated in most instances for the year 2011 while we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011336937
Cover Image
Planned fiscal consolidations and growth forecast errors : new panel evidence on fiscal multipliers
Belke, Ansgar; Kronen, Dominik; Osowski, Thomas - 2015
This paper analyzes the effect of planned fiscal consolidation on GDP growth forecast errors from the years 2010-2013 using cross section analyses and fixed effects estimations. Our main findings are that fiscal multipliers have been underestimated in most instances for the year 2011 while we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011444033
Cover Image
Adjusting for information content when comparing forecast performance
Andersson, Michael K.; Aranki, Ted; Reslow, André - 2016
Cross institutional forecast evaluations may be severely distorted by the fact that forecasts are made at different points in time, and thus with different amount of information. This paper proposes a method to account for these differences. The method computes the timing effect and the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011535966
Cover Image
Panel Data Nowcasting
Fosten, Jack - 2019
This paper promotes the use of panel data in nowcasting. We shift the existing focus of the literature, which has … propose a mixed-frequency panel VAR model and a bias-corrected least squares (BCLS) estimator which attenuates the bias … inherent to fixed effects dynamic panel settings. We demonstrate how existing panel model selection and combination methods can …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012864837
Cover Image
Planned Fiscal Consolidations and Growth Forecast Errors -- New Panel Evidence on Fiscal Multipliers
Belke, Ansgar Hubertus - 2016
This paper analyzes the effect of planned fiscal consolidation on GDP growth forecast errors from the years 2010-2013 using cross section analyses and fixed effects estimations. Our main findings are that fiscal multipliers have been underestimated in most instances for the year 2011 while we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013002556