Which region(s) will come to dominate the world economy? This paper develops the Global Gaidar Model (GGM), a 17-region, 2-skills, 100-period OLG model, to address this and other questions. The model is carefully calibrated to 2017 UN demographic and IMF fiscal data. Productivity growth and its...

In Q 3-4 2016, Russia's economy entered the phase of cyclical growth from the lowest point of the business cycle, its typical feature being the unstable movement patterns of the main socioeconomic development indicators. Inflation hit its historic low. The ruble's strengthening boosted the...

A 2019–2024 forecast of the Russian Ministry of Economic Development can be regarded as a modest and realistic projection for 2019–2020 and a target projection intended to achieve the nation's development targets for 2021–2024. The forecast contains some controversial provisions which can...

The economic development indicators in the Russian Federation over the first half-year of 2015 and the initial data on the movement of the main macroeconomic indices in July-August 2015 are such that they have necessitated a downward adjustment of the main macroeconomic indices plotted in the...

Our macroeconomic forecast of the most probable scenarios for 2016–2018 indicates that the Russian economy will pass through the lowest point of the current crisis in mid-2016, and that thereafter, from H2 2016 onwards, it will start displaying signs of stabilization and even recovery. In...

Developments that unfolded in Q1 2016, particularly the decline of crude oil prices down to a 12-year low, may result in worse-than-expected outcomes at 2016 year-end. Unlike the forecast that we made in January, we have revised down our 2016 baseline scenario for GDP growth rates from -1.4% to...

Development of Russian and world economies in Q2 2020 demonstrates that despite economic collapse countries are adapting to the current situation and in case there is no second wave of pandemic the crisis will take a V-type form. In particular, the oil price is unlikely to drop below $35 per...

Preliminary data on Russia's economic results of 2015, as well as the current trends in the global energy market, give grounds for revising down possible scenarios for Russia's economy in 2016-2017. For instance, a scenario of yearly average oil prices staying at $35 a barrel in 2016 is now the...

The results of H1 2017 on the one hand support the previous assumptions that the Russian economy is entering a growth phase, and on the other hand provide evidence of elevated uncertainty regarding the terms and prospects of economic development in the future. We expect that key macroeconomic...