Showing 1 - 10 of 1,045
pools, and use it to investigate the relative forecasting performance of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010414783
Im Zentrum dieser Dissertation steht das Beschreiben und Erklären von Konjunkturdynamiken. Motiviert durch den außerordentlich starken wirtschaftlichen Einbruch in 2008/2009 betont die Arbeit dabei die Wichtigkeit der Nutzung von nichtlinearen Modellansätzen. Die Dissertation kann als Beitrag...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012154125
Macroeconomic expectations of various economic agents are characterized by substantial cross-sectional heterogeneity …. In this paper, we focus on expectations heterogeneity among professional forecasters. We first present stylized facts and … discuss theoretical explanations for heterogeneous expectations. We then provide an overview of the empirical evidence …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014472058
Macroeconomic expectations of various economic agents are characterized by substantial crosssectional heterogeneity …. This chapter focuses on heterogeneity in the expectations among professional forecasters, first presenting stylized facts … and discussing theoretical explanations for heterogeneous expectations, before providing an overview of the empirical …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015084332
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010437731
This paper investigates the trade-off between timeliness and quality in nowcasting practices. This trade-off arises when the frequency of the variable to be nowcast, such as GDP, is quarterly, while that of the underlying panel data is monthly; and the latter contains both survey and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011846875
forecasting inflation, while the BVARX model fares better in forecasting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013024291
The expectations-augmented Phillips curve (PC) is a cornerstone of many macroeconomic models. We consider the extent to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014344341
We apply functional data analysis to survey expectations data, and show that functional principal component analysis …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014257394
This paper documents GDPNow, a "nowcasting" model for gross domestic product (GDP) growth that synthesizes the "bridge equation" approach relating GDP subcomponents to monthly source data with the factor model approach used by Giannone, Reichlin, and Small (2008). The GDPNow model forecasts GDP...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010382060