Narrow search
Showing 1 - 10 of 1,026
Cover Image
Surprise! Euro Area Inflation Has Fallen
Riggi, Marianna - 2015
inflation, which was unaccounted for in forecasting models. We probe this explanation in the context of a simple backward …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013026750
Cover Image
Evaluating point and density forecasts of DSGE models
Wolters, Maik H. - 2013
This paper investigates the accuracy of forecasts from four DSGE models for inflation, output growth and the federal funds rate using a real-time dataset synchronized with the Fed’s Greenbook projections. Conditioning the model forecasts on the Greenbook nowcasts leads to forecasts that are as...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009792175
Cover Image
Evaluating point and density forecasts of DSGE models
Wolters, Maik H. - 2012
This paper investigates the accuracy of point and density forecasts of four DSGE models for inflation, output growth and the federal funds rate. Model parameters are estimated and forecasts are derived successively from historical US data vintages synchronized with the Fed's Greenbook...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010392192
Cover Image
Dynamic prediction pools : an investigation of financial frictions and forecasting performance
Del Negro, Marco; Hasegawa, Raiden B.; Schorfheide, Frank - 2014
pools, and use it to investigate the relative forecasting performance of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010414783
Cover Image
Macroeconomics, nonlinearities, and the business cycle
Reif, Magnus - 2019
Im Zentrum dieser Dissertation steht das Beschreiben und Erklären von Konjunkturdynamiken. Motiviert durch den außerordentlich starken wirtschaftlichen Einbruch in 2008/2009 betont die Arbeit dabei die Wichtigkeit der Nutzung von nichtlinearen Modellansätzen. Die Dissertation kann als Beitrag...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012154125
Cover Image
Heterogeneous expectations among professional forecasters
Conrad, Christian; Lahiri, Kajal - 2023
Macroeconomic expectations of various economic agents are characterized by substantial cross-sectional heterogeneity …. In this paper, we focus on expectations heterogeneity among professional forecasters. We first present stylized facts and … discuss theoretical explanations for heterogeneous expectations. We then provide an overview of the empirical evidence …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014472058
Cover Image
Heterogeneous expectations among professional forecasters
Conrad, Christian; Lahiri, Kajal - 2024
Macroeconomic expectations of various economic agents are characterized by substantial crosssectional heterogeneity …. This chapter focuses on heterogeneity in the expectations among professional forecasters, first presenting stylized facts … and discussing theoretical explanations for heterogeneous expectations, before providing an overview of the empirical …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015084332
Cover Image
Inflation and output growth uncertainty in individual survey expectations : Maritta Paloviita; Matti Viren
Paloviita, Maritta; Virén, Matti E. E. - In: Empirica : journal of european economics 41 (2014) 1, pp. 69-81
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010437731
Cover Image
Quantifying qualitative survey data : new insights on the (ir)rationality of firms' forecasts
Botsis, Alexandros; Görtz, Christoph; Sakellarēs, … - 2020
particular violation of the Full Information Rational Expectations hypothesis that requires explanation. In contrast, minor …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012174792
Cover Image
A note on the predictive power of survey data in nowcasting euro area GDP
Kurz-Kim, Jeong-Ryeol - 2018
This paper investigates the trade-off between timeliness and quality in nowcasting practices. This trade-off arises when the frequency of the variable to be nowcast, such as GDP, is quarterly, while that of the underlying panel data is monthly; and the latter contains both survey and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011846875