Real-time assessment of quarterly GDP growth rates is crucial for evaluation of economy's current perspectives given the fact that respective data is normally subject to substantial publication delays by national statistical agencies. Large information sets of real-time indicators which could be...

Including disaggregate variables or using information extracted from the disaggregate variables into a forecasting model for an eco- nomic aggregate may improve the forecasting accuracy. In this paper we suggest to use boosting as a method to select the disaggregate variables which are most...

We assess the predictive ability of 15 economic uncertainty measures in a real-time out-of-sample forecasting exercise for the quantiles of The Conference Board's coincident economic index and its components (industrial production, employment, personal income, and manufacturing and trade sales)....

I construct two daily, real-time, real activity indexes for the United States, Euro area, the United Kingdom, Canada, and Japan: (i) a surprise index that summarizes recent economic data surprises and measures optimism/pessimism about the state of the economy, and (ii) an uncertainty index that...

In many macroeconomic forecasting applications factor models are used to cope with large datasets. This study aligns variational autoencoders with macroeconomic factor modeling and proposes an extension to adapt this framework for forecasting exercises. Variational autoencoders are well suited...