A time series investigation of how the historic rates of default for corporate and retail credit exposures in three small Bulgarian banks is linked to the evolution of basic macroeconomic parameters. The result is a model which produces forecasts for probability of default based on economic outlook

This paper provides Russia's financial system forecast to the year 2015. The analysis covers the banking sector, financial markets, public finance, financial system regulation (monetary, budget, investment policy). Among the key factors that influence Russian financial system development, are...